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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2009 3:28:30 AM
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You dare argue with the people of the internets? You are a brave soul Webby!
Quoth the Raven....
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Soylent Green is people!
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2009 4:30:37 AM
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I wish I could write 1000 pages of anything
No matter how cold the Winter, there's a Springtime ahead.
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2009 4:53:28 AM
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Excellent news Shawn. Is that definite, that it's more than just that one Sansa chapter that's gone into The Winds of Winter, and that it's 'hundreds' of pages more that are being polished off for ADWD?
That's cool, sounds like it's going to be a bit bigger than AFFC, although probably not as huge as ASoS (which was closer to 1600 MS pages).
Visit The Wertzone for reviews of science fiction and fantasy!
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2009 11:54:44 AM
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Excellent news Shawn. Is that definite, that it's more than just that one Sansa chapter that's gone into The Winds of Winter, and that it's 'hundreds' of pages more that are being polished off for ADWD?
Read closer what I wrote, Wert. This is how rumors get started.  I said 'some' of those hundreds of pages would be pushed into the next book. I don't know how many or what chapters, but I doubt it is 'hundreds' of pages pushed into the next book. That doesn't seem right to me. And Anne wasn't specific.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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Uncommonly Stubborn
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2009 3:51:13 PM
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when do you think the next book will be out after ADWD? 
Champagne for my real friends and real pain for my sham friends.
Here's to swimmin' with bow-legged women!
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Gunslinger
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 12:06:07 AM
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Read closer what I wrote, Wert. This is how rumors get started.
Everybody has a tendency to read into something what they want it to say. Which is why Martin would have been better served to have never begun his Not-A-Blog in the first place. Martin says "hope to finish Dance in June." Fans read "Martin will finish Dance in June." 
"Roland Deschain was the last of Gilead's last great band of warriors, for good reason; with his queerly romantic nature, his lack of imagination, and his deadly hands, he had ever been the best of them." - Song of Susannah
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Gunslinger
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 12:07:35 AM
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[QUOTE][when do you think the next book will be out after ADWD? /QUOTE]
2015. If we're lucky. 
"Roland Deschain was the last of Gilead's last great band of warriors, for good reason; with his queerly romantic nature, his lack of imagination, and his deadly hands, he had ever been the best of them." - Song of Susannah
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Soylent Green is people!
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 12:50:03 AM
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I think if GRRM published the hundreds of pages he "threw away" he'd still make like a million bucks.
No matter how cold the Winter, there's a Springtime ahead.
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Gunslinger
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 1:54:39 AM
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[QUOTE][I think if GRRM published the hundreds of pages he "threw away" he'd still make like a million bucks. /QUOTE]
You've got something there, Regnarax. "A Heap of Trash," "A Pile of Rubbish," "A Dance with Drafts," it's an entirely new Martin industry. 
"Roland Deschain was the last of Gilead's last great band of warriors, for good reason; with his queerly romantic nature, his lack of imagination, and his deadly hands, he had ever been the best of them." - Song of Susannah
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 2:47:16 AM
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when do you think the next book will be out after ADWD?
Late 2013 or Early 2014. If his average from the previous books holds true, that is.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 7:32:15 AM
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My guess would be early 2014, assuming we don't get astronomical complications of the AFFC/ADWD timeline-matching nature again. Because then all bets are off.
Still, 2010/11 should be fairly busy for ASoIaF fans, with ADWD (hopefully) in the early-to-mid year period, the third Dunk 'n' Egg prequel in March (to be published in Warriors), the TV series likely debuting in late 2010 or early 2011, and The World of Ice and Fire around the same time.
Visit The Wertzone for reviews of science fiction and fantasy!
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Gunslinger
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 7:49:57 AM
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You guys are incurable optimists . . . I wish I could be likewise. 
Have you perused his blog in recent months? This guy has so much on his plate that expecting Winds of Winter in less than five years is a pipedream.
"Roland Deschain was the last of Gilead's last great band of warriors, for good reason; with his queerly romantic nature, his lack of imagination, and his deadly hands, he had ever been the best of them." - Song of Susannah
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 10:10:00 AM
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Well, like I said, 3-4 years will be only if we don't get the same complications that led to the delays on AFFC and ADWD (i.e. disappearing gaps, split books, insane timeline conundrums). If we do, then obviously it will take the same amount of time, maybe even longer.
Workload wise, things actually seem to be lifting on GRRM a bit. At one point during the writing of ADWD he had six editing projects going on, but at the moment he has two (Star-Crossed Lovers and Fort Freak). Everything else is completed and waiting for publication.
Finally, we had a wait of 5 years and 2 months for AFFC, but if ADWD comes out say next June (the February/March stuff sounds a little optimistic), the wait will have been 'only' 4 years and 8 months That's progress. Sort of.
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ex-lurker
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 10:25:16 AM
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You've got something there, Regnarax. "A Heap of Trash," "A Pile of Rubbish," "A Dance with Drafts," it's an entirely new Martin industry.
that is gold I true thread highlight
Life is a song. Live the music
"We're all thinking she's got a crush on the poor sapper."
"And she showed her affection by beating him up?"
"She's a rough sort, sir
Memories of Ice - Steven Erikson
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2009 8:46:03 PM
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So even though we are still waiting for the long awaited arrival of dance we now are speculating when winds of winter will come out? I know Shawn and some others are more optimistic about Martins writing process then I am but this is really way to optimistic. I mean come on dance hasn’t even got a release date as of yet and here we are thinking the next book will come out in what 2013, 2014? And when you look at what Martin wants to do in the future then it would be a miracle if he finished dance before 2013 let alone write winds. For the record he is working on at least one script for the television version of ice and fire, one anthology called starcrosed lovers, one more wild cards novel, and the re-printing of all the old volumes which will include at least three new stories which he will edit. If you add up his time on conventions there is little time to write a book.
Personally I think that Martin is using his new found fame to promote a lot of other writers, his older books and his pet projects like wildcards. Economically I think he has every right to do so and it is a brilliant idea but let’s be honest since he wrote feast all we hear from him is I hope to finish dance by fill in a date. And next he writes and by the way have you heard and bought wildcards, Vance etc etc etc.
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 1:58:07 AM
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So even though we are still waiting for the long awaited arrival of dance we now are speculating when winds of winter will come out? I know Shawn and some others are more optimistic about Martins writing process then I am but this is really way to optimistic.
It's not optimism. It's just mathematics. As I've explained over and over and over again, Martin is not an author who writes a book in a year or two. He writes one in three or four. Mostly it's due to the massive word count he incurs and the quality he puts into his work; it takes time to write that many words and editing time to have them be as great as they are. So understanding how long it takes Martin to write a book -- the three years per book he's been doing from the very beginning, mind you -- then it's easy to extrapolate when Winter will be written.
If anything, Martin has been consistent on when he delivers a manuscript to the publisher. The fans just hate how long it takes for him to be consistent, mostly because they are spoiled by books a year that, in many ways, are lower in quality. It's always between 3 and 4 years -- with the exception of Feast where he wrote for 18 months and then destroyed all of that work. If you subtract that work, he's still within his 3 to 4 years.
That is factual. You can't argue that. And since it is factual, one can put a "cautionary" date for when Winter will be released.
since he wrote feast all we hear from him is I hope to finish dance by fill in a date. And next he writes and by the way have you heard and bought wildcards, Vance etc etc etc.
And why do you think that is? Because Dance isn't done. He told us years ago that he would never update us -- at least not a large update -- about where he was at in Dance because it always led to rancor against him or those who support him. So to say he isn't working on the book because you haven't heard anything about it is just one more frustrated fan being annoyed when even Martin recently has been telling you all what progress he's been making.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 2:03:05 AM
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GRRM recently reconfirmed he wants to write one script per season, but I would not be surprised if he only did one for the first season, as that will (hopefully) fall inbetween finishing ADWD and starting TWoW. OTOH, he may only have to write one draft which Benioff and Weiss will go over, so it may not involve his normal and time-consuming procrastinating perfectionism streak, which may be for the best.
The biggest concern I have time-wise is that Bantam and Voyager sound like they want GRRM to do a big international book tour for ADWD like he did for AFFC, which, whilst nice, did take something like 4-5 months out of the writing of ADWD once you added the American, Canadian and European legs all together.
The idea we won't see ADWD until 2013 is a little bit extreme. He's started talking page-counts, the editor has confirmed it's something like 90% done and locked (1,000 out of 1,200 pages done and most of those other 200 are written, just not edited and finalised), the cover art is done, the editing is done for the material handed in etc. Further delays are not impossible and I wouldn't be surprised if we did get some more problems and it didn't appear until late 2010 or something, but later than that would seem to be unlikely.
Visit The Wertzone for reviews of science fiction and fantasy!
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 3:23:20 AM
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That is factual. You can't argue that. And since it is factual, one can put a "cautionary" date for when Winter will be released.
I think it is a fact that based on the past and the over optimistic updates from Martin a lot of us will believe that Martin has finished dance or the next one after that only when we hold the book in our hands. No offense but one way or the other we have been waiting and hearing each year the same story that Martin hopes to be done soon. And each time the weeks, months and years pass by without a book.
And one thing I do wonder about is why Martin can keep a time schedule for all his other projects and deliver them on time and Dance keeps being pushed foreward. I think part of the reason is the length of the book and the quality but I still believe that Martin spends a lot of hours on other books/projects. Which is his right of course.
Still I think that the fact that he spends time on those things is what bothers fans the most. Fans understand that writing is a creative proces, that writers have a life and that their lives are not all wonderfull and they too have to deal with sickness and death but when you hear from a writer who says I have finished editing a book or wrote a story for this antholgy and they feel that that is more important then the book that they are waiting for then that is the moment they will start complaining. Most people wait patiently for Scott Lynch to finish his next book and the same goes for Rothfuss. (not all of them of couse but most). They understand that death or a baby is important too, even more so than writing a book. And when they have time they write the book they are being paid for and not editing another book or even writing other stories. So why can't Martin do the same is my question and so far I have not found an answer.
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 3:29:32 AM
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Shawn, I don't think it's a simple case of mathematics that a new book in the series is delivered every 3-4 years.
A game of thrones 6 August 1996.
A clash of Kings 16 November 1998
A Storm of Swords 8 August 2000 (insane how fast this huge book got done)
A feast for Crows 17 October 2005
A dance with Dragons ~2010?
Sure the first 3 books came out bang bang bang, and if we take the 15 or so years overall it's 3 years per book, the fact is that the last 2 books are 5 years apart. There's no reason at all to believe that he's going back to his previous pace especially considering his increased workload. We can't just take an average, we have to look at the trend. Am I anxious for it, yes. Am I upset, no, there's other books for me to read, and it's his book, I'm not entitled to it, it's something I get to have, not deserve to have. But to suggest that The winds of Winter is 2013/2014 I think is being overly optimistic.
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 5:01:01 AM
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Mxpx, you, like so many fans of Martin's work, have a truly hard time separating the writing of each book and the publishing of each book. They are entirely two different things.
I'm not using averages here. I'm using the actual times it took to write each book.
Not publish each book.
Martin began writing Thrones in 1991. It published in late 1996. When Thrones was published, Martin already had more than 1/2 of Kings done because Kings originally was not going to exist. That material was supposed to be included in Thrones. When the book grew too large, Martin knew he had to split the book.
So three years to write Thrones. This is from his own mouth in an email he answered to me, not my math.
Sometime in 1994 or early 1995, Martin began writing the material that would eventually become Kings. Once again, from his own admission, some of those later chapters went into Swords. Kings published in 1998, again, about three years worth of writing time.
A Storm of Swords 8 August 2000 (insane how fast this huge book got done)
No! This why so many Martin fans are pissed off due to erroneous thinking when they can't separate out the distinction between writing time and publishing time. Swords didn't take a year 2/3 to write. Martin already had another year and some more lead time after he finished Kings, with material already in hand for Swords. Again, it takes Martin 3 years to write this book.
Many of Martin's detractors can't seem to separate the work from the publishing dates. All they see is the dates because those are concrete. Their own ignorance about how publishing and writing works keeps them in the dark about the truth and creates animosity out of smoke and mirrors.
Feast takes five years to write. But Martin wrote 18 months worth of material that he canned. Remove those 18 months, and the book you all know as Feast took just over 3 years to write.
And now with Dragons, we are over the 3 1/2 years mark. And we know he is getting close to completing the book, especially if he has over 1000 finished pages.
That's with all of his projects. Projects he mostly didn't have when he began writing the series in 1991 and yet he is still writing the books at the same pace.
That's why all of this talk about how his other projects detract him from Dance is just downright foolhardy. He is writing at the same pace now as he was back in the day when he didn't have so many projects.
But to suggest that The winds of Winter is 2013/2014 I think is being overly optimistic.
To you maybe with limited information. But if you look at the math and the time it takes him to actually WRITE a book, not PUBLISH a book, you'll see 2014 is not far-fetched at all.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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Gunslinger
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 5:15:10 AM
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My perspective may not be math . . . let's call it a temporal anomaly. 
Since August of 2000, NINE YEARS ago, one novel has been published. And it was a partial novel.
By anyone's standards, that's a long wait. 
"Roland Deschain was the last of Gilead's last great band of warriors, for good reason; with his queerly romantic nature, his lack of imagination, and his deadly hands, he had ever been the best of them." - Song of Susannah
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 5:17:00 AM
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A partial novel that had as many words in it as one of Martin's normal novels. It is important to remember that part.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 5:40:24 AM
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Like Webby said, partial is rather subjective. It may have not been everything planned to be in the book, but the book itself was a complete novel, it is not like he gave us shoddy unfinished work. It was a complete book, it just did not cover the entire time line GRRM expected it to originally.
Quoth the Raven....
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 5:44:33 AM
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I hold a weirder philosophy than most:
I don't look at the number of books or how those books are written but at the percentage of story told through words against the total words of the eventual completed story.
The words in Feast were needed, according to Martin at least (I know many fans did not like some of the POV characters and think some were not needed). Those words jumped the overall story forward a great deal in his estimation. Without those words the story would be incomplete. Yes, the book itself was incomplete but the overall series story is complete with those words in print.
So no matter what, you all were going to read those words at some point. And when the series is finished and people can read straight through, it won't matter then.
I happen to believe Martin should have cut the story in half and included all of the characters people loved in Feast as well. Would have saved a bit of the animosity. The problem then, would be, the people angry they got "half a book" with the story cut right in the middle. haha
The joys of being a Martin fan, eh? ;)
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2009 5:55:36 AM
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So if I understand it correctly Martin writes a book in 3 years. If dance is really almost done then the next book could come out in 2014. And since there are two more books after that the series will be done around 2026. Great news. That means that by then I can read from it to my grandchildren.
I don't won't to be to pessimistic but perhaps we should call Brandon Sanderson and ask him if he can keep his agenda free because there is a good chance that he will need to finish another series by then.
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