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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/21/2010 3:27:20 PM
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True  But it specifically said 28C.
I know Santa Fe is in the Rockies, but it snowing there at the end of July could probably only happen during a nuclear winter ;)
Actually, that would be fairly typical of the way things have gone.
"IT'S DONE! I've finally completed A DANCE WITH DRAGONS! Now I'm just going to send it to the publish - wait, what's that terrible light, like the light of a million suns, coming from outside? Oh shi.... ... ... Jon's real parents were... ..."
And the FTBG crew would still think it's outrageous he hadn't finished the series. "Yeah George, we know you've been vapourised into your component atoms, but Steven Erikson was atomised last year and has written three books since then. What is your malfunction?"
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/21/2010 4:55:41 PM
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"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/22/2010 6:50:37 AM
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True But it specifically said 28C.
Ah, but YOUR previous post didn't specify, and I tend to read this forum before I go irritate myself and check out Martin's "most-definitely a blog." 
You're right, even Martin couldn't use snow in July as an excuse for a delay . . . but nuclear threats, let's consider that one for awhile. Somewhere in the world, the threat is always there (at least according to virtually every thriller written in the last three decades!!), so Martin's fears of threat becoming reality might delay Dance for the forseeable future. 
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Clown fish: Yeah we're funny. ...Think about it.
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/23/2010 11:41:52 PM
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As a resident of Santa Fe, I WOULD testify to the lack of snow, but I'm in San Diego for comic-con, where it is annoyingly overcast and chilly.
He who knows others is wise;
He who knows himself is enlightened;
He who conquers others has physical strength;
He who conquers himself is strong.
--Taoism. Tao Te Ching 33
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/26/2010 3:50:32 AM
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Martin confirms he skipped the San Diego CC so he could bring all available firepower to bear on ADWD. Actually a minorly spoilery post:
SPOILERSounds like Jon Snow is kicking some Greyjoy ass.
On another tack, filming of the HBO series proper begins today in Belfast 
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/26/2010 10:48:53 AM
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Martin confirms he skipped the San Diego CC so he could bring all available firepower to bear on ADWD.
Yup, knew he wouldn't go because he is close to finishing. Why put up with the grief over thousands of people asking after the book when you could be finishing the book.
Anne, his editor, also thinks he will be done quite soon.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/26/2010 1:04:32 PM
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The day he posts "it is done and sent to publisher" I'll be partying like a madman.
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/26/2010 2:26:54 PM
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Anne, his editor, also thinks he will be done quite soon.
Any chance you could you ask her about Bantam's turn-around times? Last year at SDCC I think she was sticking to the three-month plan, but I've heard that Bantam has unofficially ruled that out and will be going with 2011 even if he finishes tomorrow. Voyager seem to still be thinking that 2010 is still possible, but unlikely.
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Kazz D'Avore ....................... Anabar Thy'lend
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/26/2010 3:05:25 PM
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I've heard that Bantam has unofficially ruled that out and will be going with 2011 even if he finishes tomorrow. Voyager seem to still be thinking that 2010 is still possible, but unlikely.
I can't even imagine the amount of money Voyager will rake in under this scenario - does Bantam even recognize how many US readers will pay whatever is required to get reading ADWD even a few weeks/months before the US market has the book.
CADRE OF THE FALLEN
"I love those who can smile in trouble, who can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but they whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves their conduct, will pursue their principles unto death." Leonardo Da Vinci
"Some believe in Destiny, and some believe in Fate, but I believe that Happiness is something we create" - Sugarland
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/26/2010 6:11:10 PM
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I can't even imagine the amount of money Voyager will rake in under this scenario - does Bantam even recognize how many US readers will pay whatever is required to get reading ADWD even a few weeks/months before the US market has the book.
This is an interesting comment, because I've shared with you all in the past, Martin doesn't sell as great as you'd think. Sure, he has a wonderful series that many applaud to be the best, but for some reason he doesn't sell hugely. He'll hit #1 but drop off after a week or two. I think this is in direct relation to him not finishing books in a timely manner (1-2 years). Fans forget, fans move on. It kills sales.
So Voyager won't be making a lot. They will just be making more than what they normally would.
I did ask about the turn around time, Wert, and Anne told me 3 to 4 months is likely. I plan on having a RE-READING GRRM post on Suvudu every week once George turns the book in, and that means reading all 4 previous novels. I merely wanted to know from her if I'd have the time to fit that in before the 5th book is published. That's when she gave me those numbers. It therefore still looks possible it could be published in the US in 2010.
If George turns the book in before the end of August.
I also asked her another question. But I can't repeat what she said because I know it will fuel HOPE, and HOPE leads to PASSION, and PASSION leads to ANGER when hoped-for definitions are not met.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2010 6:17:00 AM
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I also asked her another question. But I can't repeat what she said because I know it will fuel HOPE, and HOPE leads to PASSION, and PASSION leads to ANGER when hoped-for definitions are not met.
Afraid we're going to the Dark Side, Shawn?
I'm already there. 
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2010 7:48:43 AM
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I know you are already there, my friend.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2010 9:33:11 AM
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Martin does sell 'a lot' compared to say 99% of authors - fantasy or otherwise - out there though He isn't Pratchett or Jordan, let alone Rowling or King, but he does very well indeed.
If we crunch numbers compared to other authors, however, Martin is doing very well for himself. A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE, just those four books, have sold 3.5 million copies in the USA and between 7 and 8 million copies worldwide, coming in at around 1.5-2 million copies of each book sold (and rising). This compares very favourably with Terry Goodkind's sales of 22-25 million with 13 books (including LAW OF NINES and that small prequel book thingy). Goodkind's overall sales are obviously higher because he has three times as many books in print, but the number of people buying the books is at best only marginally higher. If we factor in variables (Goodkind's books are, slightly, more stand-alone than GRRM's, so it's possible lots of people have only bought a few of the books and then bailed out, whilst very few sane people will have bought A FEAST FOR CROWS without having the previous three books) it's even possible - if unlikely - that ASoIaF has more actual readers than SWORD OF TRUTH.
In contrast, Robert Jordan sold well north of 44 million (a very old figure now) copies of the first eleven books in the WHEEL OF TIME series, with sales of between 3 and 4 million per book, more than twice what either Goodkind or Martin has achieved.
If we wanted to contrast with the likes of Brooks or Salvatore, that becomes much more difficult. Both of those authors have sold about 30 million books worldwide, but they have multiple series with different readers split between them. Figuring out the readership in those cases is more difficult (both authors have just under 30 books, but in their cases it's clear it's not the same 1 million people buying all 30 books).
In conclusion, Martin is one of the biggest-selling authors in the fantasy genre, definitely holding his own against many of the other big names and outclassed only by those authors who outclass everyone, namely Pratchett, Jordan, King, Rowling and various deceased authors like Tolkien and Lewis. If DRAGONS came out on the same day as TOWERS OF MIDNIGHT, a new POTTER book or King's next book, it would be buried and denied the #1 slot on the NYT list. Up against anyone else (in fantasy; I wouldn't put it up against the new Brown, Grisham or Meyer), it would have a very healthy chance of prevailing in a straight contest.
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2010 10:05:10 AM
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Well, I hope the publisher is on the ball with Martin's relative sales figures and popularity.
Given my luck with this series (frustrated fan since 1996), enough copies won't be printed and I'll stroll over to my local B&N the day it's released and it will be sold out!!! 
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2010 11:27:57 AM
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Everything you just said is quite true, Wert. But only the fanatical will order from overseas, maybe 15,000 hardcover copies? If that. You have to remember your millions numbers include paperbacks, which vastly outsell hardcovers. The new book won't have paperbacks for a long time off. 15,000 additional copies sold is not a gold rush for Voyager, is all I'm saying. It's nice, but not the gold rush Colon was saying by his "raking in" comment.
I know I won't be ordering overseas. It's expensive and my books always arrive damaged.
Now, if Paolini or Meyer or Rowling released a book months in the UK months in advance of the US, you'd see some significant sales going to the UK publisher. But George just simply isn't one of those authors. And only 1% of writers make a living at writing novels, let alone become bestsellers. Just thought I'd point that out... ;)
You also have to keep in mind many of those GRRM fans buy both copies, no matter when they are released. That's a smaller group still, but you have to factor it in. If I were smart, I would go out there and fork over the dough for a 1st/1st of Thrones. It's the one I am missing in my group. Have to look into that soon before HBO hits us across the face with Ice.
Well, I hope the publisher is on the ball with Martin's relative sales figures and popularity.
Oh, they know everything. But unlike Voyager, who just seems to get the book out as quickly as they can to probably take advantage of the lag time between US and UK releases, Random House works hard at using all of the publicity swirling around such a release to get new people on board with the series -- which in turn makes them money down the road. I really loved seeing Anne giving out free copies of Thrones at Comic Con. They undoubtedly will do something similar, "Sign a friend up for a free copy of Thrones and be entered in to win a signed hardcover of Dragons," blah blah blah. Those kinds of things take time.
People from HBO met with Anne and a few other RH people while at Comic Con. They sat right in the booth. What were they talking about? I have no idea. I would imagine it was about how to repackage the series, using images from the HBO show, among other things. We'll see what happens with that.
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2010 1:59:09 PM
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15,000 additional copies sold is not a gold rush for Voyager, is all I'm saying.
Let me put it this way. If 15,000 Americans and non-Brits pre-ordered ADWD the second the release date became known and they shipped in the first week along with native sales, ADWD would go to #1 on the UK TIMES bestseller list in the first week of release instantly. Only a new Dan Brown or Rowling would be able to outstrip it. For comparison's sake, getting to #1 on THE TIMES bestseller list in the week of release is something that Pratchett has done, but Jordan has never come close (think the best he's ever managed is #4 or #5).
Voyager would take 15,000 additional hardcover sales very gratefully if they came along at once. Stripped over say a year, yes, you're right, but as pre-orders? HarperCollins would be buying the Voyager department drinks all month long
I don't expect 15,000 extra sales in the first month. More than normal, far more than AFFC, yes due to the much greater knowledge about things like the Book Depository. Maybe a few extra thousand, but not that much. Would be nice though :-)
Bantam are releasing a new tie-in edition of A GAME OF THRONES in late February 2011 to tie in with the TV series. My guess is that HBO reps were talking to them about the series logo, possible cover images and how HBO will advertise the book on their site and so on.
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2010 8:02:43 PM
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That's my point though. He'll hit #1. But he won't stay there long. He's doesn't sell nearly as well as his fantastic writing should indicate, is what I am getting at.
Would you guys buy hardcovers of the HBO covers?
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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Clown fish: Yeah we're funny. ...Think about it.
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/27/2010 11:19:34 PM
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I'd repurchase the entire series, haha.
He who knows others is wise;
He who knows himself is enlightened;
He who conquers others has physical strength;
He who conquers himself is strong.
--Taoism. Tao Te Ching 33
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2010 5:41:01 AM
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Would you guys buy hardcovers of the HBO covers?
It would depend on the cover image. I'm not usually a fan of books with a movie image on them, so they would have to be especially good looking for me to buy one.
"Those who dream by day are cognizant of many things that escape those who dream only by night." Edgar Allen Poe
"There is something old and true in fantasy that speaks to something deep within us, to the child who dreamt that one day he would hunt the forests of the night, and feast beneath the hollow hills, and find a love to last forever somewhere south of Oz and north of Shangri-La." George R.R. Martin
"Unfortunately, education, humility, and imagination are a rare combination in humans" -- R. Scott Bakker
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/28/2010 6:20:26 AM
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I will buy the first hardcover on the market, no more than that, regardless of cover. And I would buy overseas, if the lag time is more than one month.
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/29/2010 5:02:23 PM
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Visit The Wertzone for reviews of science fiction and fantasy!
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
7/30/2010 6:31:54 AM
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He looks like Kirk Douglas in that photo.
Or Michael Douglas - am I the only one who thinks the more Michael ages, the more he looks like Kirk's twin brother instead of his son?
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
8/2/2010 4:58:57 PM
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I recently started reading this thread when looking up some info on why Martin was so late on a Dance with Dragons and I have a couple of questions for the frequent posters:
1. GRRM stated in a recent blog entry he had over a 100 pages ready for Winds of Winter. Should fans be happy that he has almost %10 of that book writen or should we assume he is going to revise/edit/throw away those pages after a Dance with Dragon is released and they will have virtually no impact on the completion time of Winds of Winter?
2. This one is more for Shwan, I have seen a number of entries in this thread where you stated that The Winds of Winter will be complete in 3 years because that is GRRM's traditional average and the delays in A Dance with Dragons is due to problems that should not be repeated in The Winds of Winter (Meereneese Knot, Book Split, Middle Books Difficult). Would you be willing to state that if Martin takes over 4 years to write The Winds of Winter (3 year average + %33 buffer) then something has changed from his writing habits from 1991-2000 and from 2000-Present?
Thanks!
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Black Staff Admin
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
8/2/2010 5:53:37 PM
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1. GRRM stated in a recent blog entry he had over a 100 pages ready for Winds of Winter. Should fans be happy that he has almost %10 of that book writen or should we assume he is going to revise/edit/throw away those pages after a Dance with Dragon is released and they will have virtually no impact on the completion time of Winds of Winter?
Given his track record with completed pages, I think only a fool would think them edit-proof. That said, I tend to be foolish when matters of the craft are talked about. We know Dance has been difficult to complete because it is the middle part of the series where characters and events have to be lined up just right for the march toward the eventual climax of the series. The Knot is the reason, primarily, for things not lining up correctly and GRRM has been banging his head against it for years and years. Will there be another Knot in the future? Unlikely in my view, since writing knots like this always take place in the middle of a story. Once completed, the characters will be set up correctly and he'll be past that middle and into the march toward the end.
The better question is: Does that bode well for those 100 pages in Winds? Sure, it does. He has a much clearer understanding of seeing the end and how events will play out now, and those characters don't have the narrative wiggle room they did before Feast and Dance were written. It's like water going along inside of a tube that gets smaller and smaller; the water has fewer places it can go and it speeds up accordingly. BUT I severely caution you in giving the book a completion percentage as Winds could end up being even larger than Storm. So, long story short, I say take it with a grain of salt.
2. This one is more for Shwan, I have seen a number of entries in this thread where you stated that The Winds of Winter will be complete in 3 years because that is GRRM's traditional average and the delays in A Dance with Dragons is due to problems that should not be repeated in The Winds of Winter (Meereneese Knot, Book Split, Middle Books Difficult). Would you be willing to state that if Martin takes over 4 years to write The Winds of Winter (3 year average + %33 buffer) then something has changed from his writing habits from 1991-2000 and from 2000-Present?
I know for a fact that nothing has changed in his writing habits, so no, I won't say something has changed even if Winds comes in later than 4 years, which it won't. He has always been a writer who freewrites. He has always been a guy who loves the NFL. He has always been a guy who loves figurines. He has always been a guy who loves traveling to conventions. He has always been a guy who loves editing anthologies. He did all of those things before he wrote Thrones and he will continue to do so, I have no doubt. If you notice, I just listed off all of the things most angry naysayers say are the reason Dance is late, but none of those people put thought into the fact he was doing those same things when the books were coming out more timely.
No, something else happened that has caused the lateness of the last two books. To me, as someone who has struggled through the middle parts of writing two books, it's easy to see what it is.
What's changed for George is the complexity of the series and GRRM entering the all-too-important middle part of the story where delicate care must be given. That's why these last two books have been difficult to write. When freewriters enter those parts of their stories, it causes chaos because they have given no forethought to what comes next. Hell, I'm an OCD outliner and I was still changing my mind back and forth about how to make characters go where I wanted them to go. I guess I will have a better answer for your question once Dance is published. If George starts offing characters left and right, shrinking down possible paths the story can go down even further, I don't see why Winds will take a long time. If he still has a crap load of characters to deal with, get ready for a long wait. Why? Because that means he's still in that middle part of the story I talked about up above, the chaotic middle that has caused him so much grief the last two books.
I guess the question I would ask you is: What do you think has changed in his every day life since he began writing Thrones that has led him astray since 2000?
Welcome to the site, JHaraldson. Hope you stay a while and chat. We love this discussion, as you can see, and so far we've only had several mean outbursts -- most of them on my end out of frustration at not being able to explain the craft better. 
"I'm not for hire, and I don't get to choose my path." -- Sider Ament
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RE: GRRM - Will It Ever Be Published?
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Posted:
8/2/2010 10:28:53 PM
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I just thought I'd point out that back on page 34 of this thread, waaaay back in february, optimistic folks started thinking Martin was likely to finish soon. Yes, I know the page count he's turned in and the small number of chapters he supposedly has left, but however you slice it, we're in August and still don't actually know when it'll be done.
I want this book as much as any of the rest of you (those who still want to buy it), I just find it amusing.
Don't look back, it'll only slow you down;
Don't want to know the odds, when it's us against the crown
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